Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
FCSB are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Rīgas FS are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and FCSB hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 47.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.5%
Model confidence
34.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00