Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FCSB · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FCSB 1-0 Oţelul
Original prediction
FCSB
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.8% | 49.1% | -14.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 21.1% | 24.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 6.10 | 15.1% | 26.8% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
FCSB
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
FCSB has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FCSBLDLWL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
OţelulDLLLD
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FCSBOţelul
43.3Attack36.7
43.3Defence50.0
40.0Form33.3
43.7Power42.8
1.40xG1.13