Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
FCSB are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Lyon are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lyon hold a 12.2-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 65.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lyon holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60