Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Vaduz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Zurich 2-1 FC Vaduz
Original prediction
FC Vaduz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.0% | 35.8% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.9% | 22.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.1% | 41.5% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
FC Vaduz
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
FC Vaduz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC ZurichDLWLW
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC VaduzWLWLD
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC ZurichFC Vaduz
52.4Attack76.2
14.3Defence19.0
33.3Form28.6
36.1Power41.8
2.42xG2.86