Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Zurich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Zurich 4-2 FC Thun
Original prediction
FC Zurich
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 36.0% | 44.5% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.4% | 21.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 39.6% | 33.9% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
FC Zurich
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
FC Zurich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC ZurichWDWDL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
FC ThunWWLLL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC ZurichFC Thun
51.9Attack55.6
25.9Defence14.8
40.7Form37.0
42.1Power37.9
2.78xG2.17