Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Zurich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Zurich 2-1 FC Luzern
Original prediction
FC Zurich
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 37.0% | 43.6% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.7% | 22.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 38.2% | 33.8% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
FC Zurich
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
FC Zurich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC ZurichLWWDW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FC LuzernWLLWL
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FC ZurichFC Luzern
60.0Attack56.7
26.7Defence26.7
46.7Form40.0
46.5Power42.4
2.91xG2.28