FC Winterthurvs
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 8/28/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Winterthur · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Winterthur 1-1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Original prediction
FC Winterthur
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.5% | 39.0% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.2% | 26.3% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 37.4% | 34.7% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
FC Winterthur
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
FC Winterthur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60