FC Winterthurvs
Neuchatel Xamax FC
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 9/4/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Winterthur · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Winterthur 4-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC
Original prediction
FC Winterthur
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.4% | 50.1% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.8% | 23.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.8% | 26.2% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
FC Winterthur
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
FC Winterthur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20