FC Winterthurvs
FC Luzern
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Schweizer Cup · 10/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Luzern · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Winterthur 0-1 FC Luzern
Original prediction
FC Luzern
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 27.5% | 36.8% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 20.9% | 24.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 51.6% | 39.0% | -12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
FC Luzern
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
FC Luzern has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
GF 12 · GA 16 · avg 2.40/3.20