FC Winterthurvs
FC Basel 1893
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Basel 1893 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Winterthur 7-3 FC Basel 1893
Original prediction
FC Basel 1893
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.25 | 21.5% | 36.3% | 14.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.73 | 19.3% | 23.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 59.3% | 39.9% | -19.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
FC Basel 1893
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
FC Basel 1893 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60