FC Winterthurvs
FC Aarau
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 9/18/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Winterthur · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Winterthur 2-1 FC Aarau
Original prediction
FC Winterthur
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.3% | 62.5% | 18.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 19.3% | -5.7 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.8% | 18.3% | -12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
FC Winterthur
Probability
62.5%
Model confidence
62.5%
FC Winterthur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80