FC WIL 1900vs
FC Aarau
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 8/31/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Aarau · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC WIL 1900 2-2 FC Aarau
Original prediction
FC Aarau
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.26 | 28.0% | 33.1% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.7% | 25.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 45.3% | 41.8% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FC Aarau
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
FC Aarau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60