Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Vaduz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-2 (7%), 3-1 (6%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun
Original prediction
FC Vaduz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 41.4% | 53.4% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.9% | 18.7% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 35.6% | 27.9% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–27%
- 2.3–16%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
FC Vaduz
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
53.4%
FC Vaduz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC VaduzLWLWL
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC ThunLLLDW
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC VaduzFC Thun
70.8Attack54.2
20.8Defence8.3
25.0Form29.2
39.6Power32.8
3.44xG2.17