Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Urartu · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Urartu 5-2 Van
Original prediction
FC Urartu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.3% | 73.4% | 12.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.4% | 16.3% | -6.1 pts |
| Away | 5.55 | 16.3% | 10.4% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
FC Urartu
Probability
73.4%
Model confidence
73.4%
FC Urartu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC UrartuDWLLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
VanWLWLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
FC UrartuVan
51.9Attack22.2
55.6Defence22.2
44.4Form25.9
51.0Power27.4
2.66xG0.68