Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Noah · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Urartu 0-3 FC Noah
Original prediction
FC Noah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.43 | 16.6% | 23.2% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.2% | 24.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 60.2% | 52.1% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
FC Noah
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
FC Noah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC UrartuLDWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC NoahWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC UrartuFC Noah
50.0Attack88.9
61.1Defence72.2
44.4Form100.0
52.8Power87.9
1.04xG1.79