Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Urartu · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Urartu 2-2 Ararat
Original prediction
FC Urartu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.0% | 58.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 23.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 5.45 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
FC Urartu
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
FC Urartu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC UrartuWLLDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AraratLWWLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
FC UrartuArarat
50.0Attack25.0
58.3Defence45.8
45.8Form37.5
51.6Power38.8
1.76xG0.72