Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alashkert · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Urartu 1-1 Alashkert
Original prediction
Alashkert
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 29.9% | 33.1% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.3% | 26.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 42.8% | 40.2% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Alashkert
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Alashkert has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC UrartuWWLDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlashkertWLWWL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 4/5
FC UrartuAlashkert
58.3Attack75.0
66.7Defence91.7
58.3Form75.0
61.6Power78.2
1.30xG1.46