FC Tulsavs
New Mexico United
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tulsa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: FC Tulsa 0-0 New Mexico United, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Tulsa 1-0 New Mexico United
Original prediction
FC Tulsa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.7% | 38.8% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.9% | 29.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.34 | 27.5% | 31.7% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Projected Score
FC Tulsa 0–0 New Mexico United
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
FC Tulsa
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
FC Tulsa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC TulsaDDLDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
New Mexico UnitedLDDDW
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FC TulsaNew Mexico United
40.0Attack52.0
68.0Defence60.0
50.7Form57.3
54.1Power58.3
1.01xG0.92