Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tokyo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Tokyo 3-0 Urawa
Original prediction
FC Tokyo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 55.2% | 62.3% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.7% | 19.5% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 4.43 | 21.1% | 18.3% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
FC Tokyo
Probability
62.3%
Model confidence
62.3%
FC Tokyo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC TokyoWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 0 · avg 2.20/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
UrawaWWWLW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FC TokyoUrawa
58.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence25.0
70.8Form50.0
65.5Power49.6
2.63xG1.18