FC Tokyovs
Shonan Bellmare
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 10/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tokyo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Tokyo 4-0 Shonan Bellmare
Original prediction
FC Tokyo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.3% | 47.5% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.9% | 25.7% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.76 | 15.8% | 26.8% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
FC Tokyo
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
FC Tokyo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20