FC Tokyovs
Nagoya Grampus
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tokyo · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Tokyo 1-0 Nagoya Grampus
Original prediction
FC Tokyo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 54.1% | 63.7% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.7% | 20.1% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 22.3% | 16.1% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
FC Tokyo
Probability
63.7%
Model confidence
63.7%
FC Tokyo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40