FC Tokyovs
Kashiwa Reysol
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tokyo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Tokyo 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol
Original prediction
FC Tokyo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.7% | 64.4% | 19.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.9% | 18.5% | -8.4 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 28.4% | 17.1% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
FC Tokyo
Probability
64.4%
Model confidence
64.4%
FC Tokyo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20
GF 19 · GA 10 · avg 3.80/2.00