Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Thun · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Thun 2-0 SC Kriens
Original prediction
FC Thun
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.7% | 58.0% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.65 | 19.6% | 21.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.88 | 18.7% | 20.2% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Thun
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
FC Thun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC ThunWLLLD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SC KriensWDLDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC ThunSC Kriens
84.6Attack66.7
74.4Defence41.7
66.7Form58.3
70.7Power57.5
3.19xG0.93