FC Thunvs
Lech Poznan
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 8/27/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lech Poznan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Thun 2-2 Lech Poznan
Original prediction
Lech Poznan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 35.0% | 27.5% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.4% | 24.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 40.6% | 48.4% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Lech Poznan
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Lech Poznan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 14 · avg 2.60/2.80
GF 18 · GA 1 · avg 3.60/0.20