GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 8/27/2026, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lech Poznan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

FC Thun are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Lech Poznan are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Lech Poznan hold a 36.7-point power-rating edge (59.3 v 96.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lech Poznan holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lech Poznan

Probability

42.1%

Model confidence

12.1%

Lech Poznan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FC ThunLLWLL

GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Lech PoznanWWWWL

GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
FC ThunLech Poznan
83.3Attack100.0
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form100.0
59.3Power96.0
1.40xG1.65
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