Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Thun · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Thun 0-0 Lausanne
Original prediction
FC Thun
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 45.4% | 43.2% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.7% | 24.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.8% | 32.3% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
FC Thun
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
FC Thun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC ThunWDLWL
GF 14 · GA 15 · avg 2.80/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
LausanneLLWDW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC ThunLausanne
75.0Attack40.0
0.0Defence53.3
50.0Form33.3
42.5Power45.2
1.97xG1.65