FC Thunvs
HNK Hajduk Split
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HNK Hajduk Split · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Thun 0-1 HNK Hajduk Split
Original prediction
HNK Hajduk Split
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 32.7% | 29.6% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.5% | 26.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 40.8% | 44.0% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
HNK Hajduk Split
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
HNK Hajduk Split has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00