Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-4 (11%), 1-4 (10%), 0-5 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Thun 2-3 FC Lugano
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.64 | 25.5% | 15.8% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.0% | 16.8% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 51.5% | 67.4% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–411%
- 2.1–410%
- 3.0–510%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
67.4%
Model confidence
67.4%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC ThunLDLLW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC LuganoWWWWL
GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
FC ThunFC Lugano
56.7Attack100.0
10.0Defence76.7
33.3Form93.3
35.7Power88.4
0.90xG4.50