Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Thun · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
FC Thun are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Baden are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Thun hold a 38.1-point power-rating edge (66.9 v 28.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 89.4% in the Challenge League, while FC Thun holds the strongest overall chance at 89% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 75% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Thun
Probability
89.4%
Model confidence
89.4%
FC Thun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00