FC St. Paulivs
VfL Wolfsburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/12/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfL Wolfsburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg
Original prediction
VfL Wolfsburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.0% | 32.6% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.6% | 24.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 35.4% | 43.1% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
VfL Wolfsburg
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
VfL Wolfsburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80