FC St. Paulivs
Karlsruher SC
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/11/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC St. Pauli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC St. Pauli 2-0 Karlsruher SC
Original prediction
FC St. Pauli
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 54.9% | 54.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 22.6% | 22.4% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
FC St. Pauli
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
FC St. Pauli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40