FC St. Paulivs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 8/30/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC St. Pauli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC St. Pauli 1-2 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Original prediction
FC St. Pauli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 53.2% | 43.0% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.4% | 26.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 22.3% | 30.5% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
FC St. Pauli
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
FC St. Pauli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20