FC ST. Gallenvs
FC Thun
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Super League · 8/30/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC ST. Gallen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun
Original prediction
FC ST. Gallen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 57.4% | 54.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 21.6% | 22.2% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.9% | 23.1% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
FC ST. Gallen
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
FC ST. Gallen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 12 · GA 16 · avg 2.40/3.20