First LeagueFirst League
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 14:55
FC Sochi

FC Sochi

Home
L
50
Full time
Arsenal Tula

Arsenal Tula

Away
W
Fisht Olympic Stadium
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
FC Sochi(40%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
FC Sochi
40%
Draw
27%
Arsenal Tula
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FC Sochi
9
Arsenal Tula
73
Defence
FC Sochi
6
Arsenal Tula
66
Momentum
FC Sochi
0
Arsenal Tula
100
Danger (xG)
FC Sochi
0.00
Arsenal Tula
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (FC Sochi)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Arsenal Tula)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (FC Sochi)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Arsenal Tula)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FC SochiFC Sochi
LWD
Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula
WLL

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
FC Sochi40%
Draw27%
Arsenal Tula33%

FC Sochi leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

FC Sochi head into this in First League fixture at Fisht Olympic Stadium in mixed form (L), while Arsenal Tula arrive in mixed form (W). FC Sochi have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Arsenal Tula over 1 games.

Tactically, Arsenal Tula hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable FC Sochi defence (6/100), while FC Sochi's attack faces a solid Arsenal Tula backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

FC Sochi have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home. Arsenal Tula have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between FC Sochi and Arsenal Tula in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects FC Sochi to win with 40% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: FC Sochi 4000%, Draw 2745%, Arsenal Tula 3255%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

FC Sochi

FC Sochi

L
vs Torpedo Moskva
3 Jul 2026
03
W
vs Ska-khabarovsk
30 Jun 2026
42
D
vs Akhmat
17 May 2026
11
Arsenal Tula

Arsenal Tula

W
vs Tekstilshchik
13 Jul 2026
21
L
vs Rodina Moskva
16 May 2026
14
L
@ Enisey
11 May 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula?

GoalVio's model predicts FC Sochi to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more