Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Sion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Sion 1-0 Lausanne
Original prediction
FC Sion
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 62.5% | 65.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.51 | 20.5% | 19.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 5.44 | 17.0% | 15.8% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Sion
Probability
65.1%
Model confidence
65.1%
FC Sion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC SionWLLLD
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LausanneWLLLL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
FC SionLausanne
76.7Attack23.3
43.3Defence46.7
63.3Form20.0
61.3Power32.9
2.91xG0.81