Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Sion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 5-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Sion 1-1 FC Zurich
Original prediction
FC Sion
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 64.5% | 71.5% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.71 | 19.6% | 14.9% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 5.84 | 15.8% | 13.6% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.71 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.5–17%
Predicted outcome
FC Sion
Probability
71.5%
Model confidence
71.5%
FC Sion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC SionWWWWL
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FC ZurichWDLWL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC SionFC Zurich
91.7Attack54.2
45.8Defence20.8
75.0Form41.7
70.8Power41.6
4.07xG1.47