Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Sion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Sion 3-2 FC Thun
Original prediction
FC Sion
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 55.5% | 55.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 22.7% | 21.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.28 | 21.9% | 23.5% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
FC Sion
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
FC Sion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC SionWLLLW
GF 14 · GA 13 · avg 2.80/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC ThunDWDLW
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FC SionFC Thun
73.3Attack60.0
40.0Defence6.7
60.0Form46.7
58.8Power39.7
2.89xG1.63