Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Sion 1-2 FC Lugano
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.8% | 34.8% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.2% | 24.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 31.0% | 40.2% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC SionLLWWW
GF 16 · GA 13 · avg 3.20/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC LuganoDWWDW
GF 20 · GA 5 · avg 4.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FC SionFC Lugano
88.9Attack100.0
33.3Defence77.8
66.7Form100.0
63.1Power91.2
1.64xG2.07