Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sintrense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Serpa 2-0 Sintrense
Original prediction
Sintrense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 30.8% | 31.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.4% | 29.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.9% | 38.7% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Sintrense
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Sintrense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80