Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Serpa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Serpa 1-2 Louletano
Original prediction
FC Serpa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.02 | 22.4% | 35.9% | 13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.6% | 28.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 49.0% | 35.8% | -13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
FC Serpa
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
FC Serpa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC SerpaDDWWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LouletanoLWWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC SerpaLouletano
33.3Attack16.7
75.0Defence83.3
58.3Form50.0
58.8Power53.0
1.40xG1.10