Regionalliga - Bayern
FC Schweinfurt 05
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TSV 1860 München
AwayThe model projects 1.45 xG for FC Schweinfurt 05 and 1.25 xG for TSV 1860 München. TSV 1860 München's projected xG of 1.25 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.70 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesFC Schweinfurt 05TSV 1860 MünchenProbability breakdown
FC Schweinfurt 05 leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
FC Schweinfurt 05 Narrow Edge — Model Projects 1-0
FC Schweinfurt 05 take on TSV 1860 München in Regionalliga - Bayern.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
FC Schweinfurt 05 have a structural home advantage that the model quantifies directly. Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams — empirically derived from home sides scoring 10–15% more goals on their own ground. The Elo model gives FC Schweinfurt 05 a 56% expected score in this fixture. When the underlying metrics are otherwise close, home advantage is often the decisive tipping factor.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours FC Schweinfurt 05, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If TSV 1860 München score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.20 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Recent form
FC Schweinfurt 05
TSV 1860 München
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Schweinfurt 05 vs TSV 1860 München?
GoalVio's model predicts FC Schweinfurt 05 to win with 39% confidence.
What is the predicted score for FC Schweinfurt 05 vs TSV 1860 München?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.
Will both teams score in FC Schweinfurt 05 vs TSV 1860 München?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Schweinfurt 05 vs TSV 1860 München?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.