FC Schalke 04vs
FSV Mainz 05
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FSV Mainz 05 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05
Original prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 31.7% | 32.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.4% | 24.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 41.9% | 42.8% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FSV Mainz 05
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
FSV Mainz 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 16 · GA 10 · avg 3.20/2.00