FC Santiagovs
Real Refineros
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga Premier Serie A · 10/27/2026, 2:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Santiago · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Santiago 6-0 Real Refineros
Original prediction
FC Santiago
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 03:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 79.7% | 67.8% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.96 | 13.1% | 18.0% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 12.64 | 7.2% | 14.2% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Santiago
Probability
67.8%
Model confidence
67.8%
FC Santiago has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 12 · GA 14 · avg 2.40/2.80