FC Saarbrückenvs
MSV Duisburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MSV Duisburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Saarbrücken 2-4 MSV Duisburg
Original prediction
MSV Duisburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.2% | 33.9% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.0% | 27.2% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.8% | 38.9% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
MSV Duisburg
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
MSV Duisburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40