FC Saarbrückenvs
FC Ingolstadt 04
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Saarbrücken · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Saarbrücken 0-1 FC Ingolstadt 04
Original prediction
FC Saarbrücken
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.3% | 49.7% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.0% | 23.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.7% | 26.7% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
FC Saarbrücken
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
FC Saarbrücken has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00