Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Rostov 2-0 Lokomotiv
Original prediction
Lokomotiv
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 41.3% | 30.3% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 29.1% | 27.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 29.6% | 42.2% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC RostovDLWLL
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
LokomotivDDWWL
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC RostovLokomotiv
33.3Attack48.5
48.5Defence57.6
36.4Form33.3
41.4Power46.6
0.90xG1.38