Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Rostov · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Rostov 3-1 Fakel
Original prediction
FC Rostov
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 49.0% | 47.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.9% | 26.9% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.27 | 22.2% | 25.8% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
FC Rostov
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
FC Rostov has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC RostovWLLWD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FakelDLDLL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FC RostovFakel
55.6Attack50.0
55.6Defence16.7
44.4Form0.0
53.1Power26.7
1.86xG1.12