Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Rostov · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Rostov 1-0 Akron
Original prediction
FC Rostov
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 50.9% | 43.5% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.9% | 25.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 22.2% | 31.0% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
FC Rostov
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
FC Rostov has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC RostovLLLWW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
AkronLWDDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC RostovAkron
37.0Attack40.7
37.0Defence33.3
29.6Form29.6
36.6Power36.5
1.58xG1.39