FC Portovs
PSV Eindhoven
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven
Original prediction
FC Porto
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 62.7% | 41.6% | -21.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.58 | 20.8% | 25.5% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 5.77 | 16.5% | 32.9% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40