Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
FC Porto are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Nice are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Porto hold a 21.3-point power-rating edge (49.6 v 28.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while FC Porto holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
66.3%
Model confidence
66.3%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20