FC Portovs
Manchester City
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 9/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Porto 0-2 Manchester City
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.85 | 19.6% | 31.2% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 23.7% | 22.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.68 | 56.7% | 46.5% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20